Meesho IPO Day 3 Alerts: GMP Boom After Subscription Frenzy – Should You Jump

Meesho IPO, the e-commerce platform’s ₹5,421 crore public issue, entered its final day of bidding on December 5, 2025, after strong momentum from Days 1 and 2. The issue opened on December 3 with a price band of ₹105-₹111 per share, aiming to raise funds through a fresh issue of ₹4,250 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of ₹1,171.20 crore from existing shareholders. By midday on Day 3, the IPO had achieved 12.17 times overall subscription, led by non-institutional investors (NIIs) at 19.50 times, retail at 12.40 times, and qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) at 8.44 times. The grey market premium (GMP) rose to ₹53, implying a potential 48% listing gain over the upper band of ₹111.

Meesho IPO Timeline & Core Details

The subscription window closes on December 5, 2025, with allotment expected on December 8, refunds and demat credit on December 9, and listing on BSE and NSE on December 10. The minimum lot size is 135 shares, translating to a retail investment of ₹14,985 at the upper price. Allocation is structured as 75% for QIBs (including anchors who bid ₹2,439.54 crore on December 2), 15% for NIIs, and 10% for retail. Anchor investors such as SBI Mutual Fund, BlackRock, Fidelity Funds, Government of Singapore, Monetary Authority of Singapore, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Tiger Global, UTI MF, Motilal Oswal MF, Axis MF, Tata MF, HSBC MF, and Bandhan MF committed shares with a lock-in of 30-90 days. KFin Technologies is the registrar, with Kotak Mahindra Capital, J.P. Morgan India, Morgan Stanley India, Axis Capital, and Citigroup Global Markets India as lead managers. Retail applications can be made via UPI-ASBA through brokers or banks, with status checks available on the registrar or exchange websites post-allotment.

Live Subscription Status Breakdown

Day 1 saw the issue fully subscribed by evening at 2.35 times overall, with retail leading at 3.87-4.11 times amid limited early QIB interest. Day 2 accelerated to 7.97 times overall, with retail at 9.14 times, NIIs at 9.18 times, and QIBs at 6.96 times. Day 3 has seen explosive growth, particularly from NIIs and retail, underscoring the platform’s appeal to value-focused investors in mass-market e-commerce.

CategoryDay 1Day 2Day 3 (as of 11:19 AM)Key Notes
QIB (ex-Anchor)2.126.968.44Surging institutional bids
NII1.809.1819.50Exceptional HNI surge
Retail3.879.1412.40Sustained oversubscription
Total2.357.9712.17Final-day momentum peak

Updates are hourly; monitor BSE/NSE or Chittorgarh for real-time data. The robust NII and retail demand signals strong listing enthusiasm, with QIB inflows likely to push the final multiple higher.

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Meesho IPO GMP Trends

The GMP, an unofficial indicator of listing premiums from grey market trades, reflects unlisted share pricing. On December 5 morning, Meesho’s GMP hit ₹53 (up from ₹51 on Day 2 and ₹47 on Day 1), suggesting a ₹164 listing price (₹111 + ₹53) and 48% gains. It ranged ₹46-₹51 on Day 1, rising from pre-open ₹40-₹49 levels, fueled by anchor commitments and subscription surge. GMP can fluctuate with bids or volatility—past e-commerce IPOs like peers debuted 20-50% higher, but it’s not guaranteed. Track via grey market observers until listing.

Meesho’s Growth Story & Business Edge

Founded in 2015 by IIT Delhi alumni Vidit Aatrey and Sanjeev Barnwal (initially as Fashnear), Meesho shifted to social commerce, enabling resellers via WhatsApp and Facebook. It now leads India in order volume and annual transacting users (ATUs), linking 5.75 lakh sellers to 23.42 crore ATUs in H1 FY26, emphasizing low prices on unbranded and regional items. AI/ML powers personalized recommendations mimicking offline shopping, while Valmo logistics (handling one-third of e-commerce shipments) ensures efficient delivery with 13,678 partners and 85,000 agents. The zero-commission model draws small sellers; H1 FY26 delivered 23.42 crore ATUs and ₹33,483 crore GMV. Expansions into content commerce (39,618 creators contributing ₹946 crore NMV) and fintech bolster its mass-market edge amid e-commerce evolution.

Financial Snapshot & Valuation

Operating revenue reached ₹9,389.9 crore in FY25, up 23% from ₹7,615 crore in FY24, via ads, logistics, and fees. Trailing 12-month GMV hit ₹70,160 crore ($8.4 billion annualized run-rate), with contribution margins at 4.95% (H1 FY26: 3.8%). Positive free cash flow of ₹351 crore in FY25 signals maturity, though adjusted net loss was ₹460 crore (excluding one-offs like ₹3,942 crore restructuring/ESOP/tax hits). H1 FY26 revenue grew 29% YoY to ₹5,577 crore, with NMV up 44% to ₹19,194 crore.

FY MetricFY23FY24FY25Growth
Revenue (₹ Cr)5,7347,6159,390+23% YoY
GMV (₹ Bn)344.9503.1701.6+39% YoY
EBITDA Loss (₹ Cr)1,414Improving
Free Cash Flow (₹ Cr)-304351Positive

At ₹111 upper band, post-issue valuation is ~₹52,500 crore ($6.3 billion), a 5.3x P/S on FY25 revenue—below peers’ 7x average (e.g., Swiggy 6.5x, Nykaa 9.7x). Fresh funds target AI/cloud, marketing, acquisitions; OFS enables SoftBank exits.

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Investment Pros, Cons & Outlook

Strengths:

  • Leads low-ticket Tier-2/3 markets with 15.4 crore daily listings and 17.4 crore non-metro ATUs.
  • Positive cash flows and AI/logistics moats drive efficiency; 46% ATU growth outpaces sector.
  • GMP and subscriptions hint at 45-48% short-term pops.

Risks:

  • Intense rivalry from Amazon/Flipkart; EBITDA negative at ₹1,414 crore in FY25.
  • E-commerce slowdowns or quick-commerce regulations; H1 FY26 margins dipped to 3.8%.
  • Valuation assumes 26% GMV CAGR to FY31, per CLSA.

Analysts like Angel One, SBI Securities, and InCred Equities rate it ‘Subscribe’ long-term, citing reasonable 5.3x P/S vs. peers and Bharat penetration. Retail suits listing plays; HNIs/QIBs focus on fundamentals. Day 3 bids have elevated GMP—assess risks and consult advisors.

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